Will Somalia win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$3.4K
$2.63
97.5¢ → 97.6¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$0.03 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 97.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$1.18 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 97.5¢ | $467.19 | $467.67 | +$0.48 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.5¢ | $283.08 | $283.37 | +$0.29 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $77.62 | $78.33 | +$0.7 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $74.99 | $74.99 | -$0 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$1,299.66
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$0.03
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$1,154.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$1.18
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$467.19
Value
$467.67
PnL
+$0.48
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
Invested
$283.08
Value
$283.37
PnL
+$0.29
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$77.62
Value
$78.33
PnL
+$0.7
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$74.99
Value
$74.99
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.