AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.2K
-$31.38
81.7¢ → 94.5¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
1136h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 86.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$66.8 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 76.6¢ | $268.29 | $331.26 | +$62.97 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 90.5¢ | $187.01 | $189.11 | +$2.1 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 2B9S | Noavg 7.4¢ | $8.1 | $103.18 | +$95.08 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 70¢ | $284.2 | $22.13 | -$262.07 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
 Trading4Fridge<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $7.14 | $10.88 | +$3.75 | 58% 928-661 (1589) |
PaddyAlphaInvested
$1,462.75
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$66.8
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$268.29
Value
$331.26
PnL
+$62.97
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$187.01
Value
$189.11
PnL
+$2.1
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
2B9SInvested
$8.1
Value
$103.18
PnL
+$95.08
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$284.2
Value
$22.13
PnL
-$262.07
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Trading4Fridge<$100Invested
$7.14
Value
$10.88
PnL
+$3.75
Record
58%
928-661 (1589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.