Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$2.8K
$36.51
91.8¢ → 93.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
705h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 92¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | +$22.92 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 yen4u | Noavg 91¢ | $349.45 | $357.13 | +$7.68 | 86% 809-136 (945) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 93¢ | $190.65 | $190.65 | +$0 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 92.2¢ | $100.93 | $101.86 | +$0.93 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $45.92 | $50.84 | +$4.92 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $10.25 | $10.31 | +$0.06 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
DEGENKHANInvested
$2,164.05
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$22.92
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
yen4uInvested
$349.45
Value
$357.13
PnL
+$7.68
Record
86%
809-136 (945)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$190.65
Value
$190.65
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$100.93
Value
$101.86
PnL
+$0.93
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$45.92
Value
$50.84
PnL
+$4.92
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
tetrase<$100Invested
$10.25
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$0.06
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.