Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Anthropic (50%) · Anthropic at 92¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Anthropic92¢OpenAI8¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anthropic

Consensus Traders

Anthropic 50%

Total Value

$16.1K

Combined PnL

$206.21

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 92¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnthropic at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anthropic

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anthropic92%

OpenAI8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anthropic3 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares16,158

Combined PnL+$530.68

OpenAI3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares15,823

Combined PnL-$324.48

Anthropic — 50%OpenAI — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

3818h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Anthropic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAnthropic 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpAnthropic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOpenAI 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedAnthropic 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Anthropic 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thoodr	Anthropicavg 90.3¢	$9.0K	$9.2K	+$168.09	96% 631-24 (655)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Anthropicavg 91¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	+$37.6	63% 353-204 (557)
PH phdcapital	Anthropicavg 79¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$325	94% 259-17 (276)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	OpenAIavg 10¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$315.95	45% 112-138 (250)
NadmiCTR<$100	OpenAIavg 11¢	$9.3	$10.44	+$1.14	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
HorribleWorkCTR<$100	OpenAIavg 19¢	$16.69	$7.03	-$9.66	60% 465-309 (774)

thoodr

Anthropic

Invested

$9,035.19

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$168.09

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Anthropic

Invested

$3,654.51

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$37.6

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

phdcapital

Anthropic

Invested

$1,974.97

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$325

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

OpenAI

Invested

$1,564.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$315.95

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

NadmiCTR<$100

OpenAI

Invested

$9.3

Value

$10.44

PnL

+$1.14

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

HorribleWorkCTR<$100

OpenAI

Invested

$16.69

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$9.66

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

Research grade

NeutralAnthropic at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Anthropic

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

3818h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Anthropic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAnthropic 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpAnthropic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOpenAI 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedAnthropic 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Anthropic 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anthropic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.