Consensus PnL -$237K · win rate 65% (433–235, n=668) · was PM monthly #985 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-237.5K
Record
433W / 235L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 668 settled
Batting Avg
51.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#928
Source
PM monthly #985
Trades
4,577
Markets
865
Volume
$13.6M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 17 on the consensus side (12%)- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $55K · now 25¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (67% of 21)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $14K · now 23¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes $8.0K · now 5¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes $7.7K · now 34¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes $5.8K · now 24¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?No $4.7K · now 30¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $2.9K · now 28¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.6K · now 33¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
615 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 67¢- Soccer
+28 pts
side won 88% of 24 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +42%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 97% of 100 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +1%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 96% of 48 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 33% of 36 at an average 40¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 15% of 163)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 36% of 39)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 71% of 35)
- 70¢ and up: 61%(won 98% of 378)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.