Costa do Sauipe: Facundo Acosta vs Thiago Seyboth Wild

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Thiago Seyboth Wild (57%) · Thiago Seyboth Wild at 77¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 14

Facundo Acosta24¢Thiago Seyboth Wild76¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Consensus Traders

Thiago Seyboth Wild 57%

Total Value

$106.63

Combined PnL

-$1.12

Research grade

NeutralThiago Seyboth Wild at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thiago Seyboth Wild

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Facundo Acosta24%

Thiago Seyboth Wild77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thiago Seyboth Wild4 traders

Total Value$94.81

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$0.53

Facundo Acosta3 traders

Total Value$11.82

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$1.65

Thiago Seyboth Wild — 57%Facundo Acosta — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Thiago Seyboth Wild. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Thiago Seyboth Wild 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 57¢	$53.48	$53.01	-$0.47	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 55¢	$26.94	$27.67	+$0.73	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SE sentrio<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 55¢	$11	$11.3	+$0.3	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Facundo Acostaavg 48.7¢	$15.88	$6.75	-$0.98	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Facundo Acostaavg 49.2¢	$3.28	$2.9	-$0.38	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 57.2¢	$2.86	$2.82	-$0.04	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Facundo Acostaavg 49.2¢	$2.46	$2.18	-$0.29	49% 1800-1900 (3700)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$53.48

Value

$53.01

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Flaznorp<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$26.94

Value

$27.67

PnL

+$0.73

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

sentrio<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$11

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

LimousinCTR<$100

Facundo Acosta

Invested

$15.88

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$0.98

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Facundo Acosta

Invested

$3.28

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

ameisgoat11<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.04

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Facundo Acosta

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Research grade

NeutralThiago Seyboth Wild at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thiago Seyboth Wild

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Thiago Seyboth Wild. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Thiago Seyboth Wild 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thiago Seyboth Wild wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.