Monastir: Dali Blanch vs Marko Topo

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dali Blanch (44%) · Dali Blanch at 53¢ · $793 held · ends Nov 16

Dali Blanch53¢Marko Topo47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dali Blanch

Consensus Traders

Dali Blanch 44%

Total Value

$793.19

Combined PnL

-$3.15

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 53¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDali Blanch at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dali Blanch

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dali Blanch53%

Marko Topo47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dali Blanch4 traders

Total Value$569.77

Total Shares1,080

Combined PnL+$14.92

Marko Topo5 traders

Total Value$223.41

Total Shares433

Combined PnL-$18.08

Dali Blanch — 44%Marko Topo — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Dali Blanch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Dali Blanch) and the top 1000 (8 on Marko Topo) disagree here.

ctrDali Blanch 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedDali Blanch 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marko Topo 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Dali Blanchavg 52¢	$263.46	$263.37	-$0.09	37% 191-330 (521)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Dali Blanchavg 48.6¢	$222.01	$237.64	+$15.63	1% 2-198 (200)
0xheavy888CTR	Marko Topoavg 52¢	$161.41	$146.41	-$15	55% 106-86 (192)
VeryLucky888<$100	Dali Blanchavg 52¢	$55.54	$55.54	+$0	49% 231-239 (470)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Marko Topoavg 51¢	$35.74	$33.82	-$1.92	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Marko Topoavg 48.8¢	$24.39	$23.5	-$0.89	52% 125-115 (240)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Marko Topoavg 47¢	$14.57	$14.42	-$0.15	48% 421-450 (871)
SE sentrio<$100	Dali Blanchavg 53¢	$13.83	$13.22	-$0.61	31% 170-383 (553)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Marko Topoavg 48¢	$5.38	$5.27	-$0.11	25% 213-654 (867)

omnibus-076daa

Dali Blanch

Invested

$263.46

Value

$263.37

PnL

-$0.09

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Dali Blanch

Invested

$222.01

Value

$237.64

PnL

+$15.63

Record

2-198 (200)

0xheavy888CTR

Marko Topo

Invested

$161.41

Value

$146.41

PnL

-$15

Record

55%

106-86 (192)

VeryLucky888<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$55.54

Value

$55.54

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Marko Topo

Invested

$35.74

Value

$33.82

PnL

-$1.92

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Marko Topo

Invested

$24.39

Value

$23.5

PnL

-$0.89

Record

52%

125-115 (240)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Marko Topo

Invested

$14.57

Value

$14.42

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

sentrio<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$13.83

Value

$13.22

PnL

-$0.61

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

VenusianCTR<$100

Marko Topo

Invested

$5.38

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$0.11

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

Research grade

NeutralDali Blanch at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Dali Blanch

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Dali Blanch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Dali Blanch) and the top 1000 (8 on Marko Topo) disagree here.

ctrDali Blanch 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedDali Blanch 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marko Topo 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dali Blanch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.