Monastir: Sandro Kopp vs Luka Mikrut
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Luka Mikrut (67%) · Luka Mikrut at 72¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Luka Mikrut
6
Luka Mikrut 67%
$148.74
$4.09
70.7¢ → 71.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLuka Mikrut at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Luka Mikrut. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Luka Mikrutavg 70.5¢ | $100.32 | $102.39 | +$2.06 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Luka Mikrutavg 71¢ | $12.69 | $12.78 | +$0.09 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
 VeryLucky888 | Luka Mikrutavg 71¢ | $119.72 | $12.21 | +$1.6 | 58% 53852-38329 (92181) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Sandro Koppavg 28¢ | $41.57 | $11.85 | +$0.21 | 45% 2751-3326 (6077) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Sandro Koppavg 28¢ | $20.83 | $5.94 | +$0.1 | 53% 72121-63608 (135729) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Luka Mikrutavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.58 | +$0.03 | 53% 14841-13046 (27887) |
Invested
$100.32
Value
$102.39
PnL
+$2.06
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$12.78
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
VeryLucky888Invested
$119.72
Value
$12.21
PnL
+$1.6
Record
58%
53852-38329 (92181)
Invested
$41.57
Value
$11.85
PnL
+$0.21
Record
45%
2751-3326 (6077)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$20.83
Value
$5.94
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
72121-63608 (135729)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.58
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
14841-13046 (27887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.