BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Jan Simonsson

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Adrian Mannarino (63%) · Adrian Mannarino at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Adrian Mannarino94¢Jan Simonsson6¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Adrian Mannarino

Consensus Traders

Adrian Mannarino 63%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 93.9¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Mannarino at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Mannarino

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Mannarino94%

Jan Simonsson6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adrian Mannarino5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,043

Combined PnL+$7.21

Jan Simonsson3 traders

Total Value$57.11

Total Shares1,430

Combined PnL+$0.8

Adrian Mannarino — 63%Jan Simonsson — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Adrian Mannarino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAdrian Mannarino 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAdrian Mannarino 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Adrian Mannarino 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Adrian Mannarinoavg 96¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$4.19	57% 900-666 (1566)
FL Flaznorp	Adrian Mannarinoavg 92.8¢	$723.34	$732.77	+$9.44	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SE sentrio	Adrian Mannarinoavg 93¢	$108.25	$109.18	+$0.93	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Jan Simonssonavg 3.9¢	$51.56	$51.56	+$0	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 94¢	$49.94	$47.97	+$1.02	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 94¢	$9.4	$9.4	-$0	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Jan Simonssonavg 4¢	$2.56	$3.84	+$1.28	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Jan Simonssonavg 5¢	$2.19	$1.71	-$0.48	53% 2699-2381 (5080)

k56

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$2,004.19

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$4.19

Record

57%

900-666 (1566)

Flaznorp

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$723.34

Value

$732.77

PnL

+$9.44

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

sentrio

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$108.25

Value

$109.18

PnL

+$0.93

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

hi774cCTR<$100

Jan Simonsson

Invested

$51.56

Value

$51.56

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

Eulhunter<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$49.94

Value

$47.97

PnL

+$1.02

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

ameisgoat11<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Jan Simonsson

Invested

$2.56

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$1.28

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Jan Simonsson

Invested

$2.19

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Mannarino at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Mannarino

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Adrian Mannarino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAdrian Mannarino 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAdrian Mannarino 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Adrian Mannarino 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adrian Mannarino wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.1%

93.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.