Monastir: Marvin Moeller vs Nikolai Barsukov

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Marvin Moeller (63%) · Marvin Moeller at 67¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Marvin Moeller67¢Nikolai Barsukov33¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marvin Moeller

Consensus Traders

Marvin Moeller 63%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$13.67

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 66.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarvin Moeller at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marvin Moeller

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marvin Moeller67%

Nikolai Barsukov34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marvin Moeller5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,153

Combined PnL-$96.84

Nikolai Barsukov3 traders

Total Value$962.98

Total Shares3,012

Combined PnL+$110.51

Marvin Moeller — 63%Nikolai Barsukov — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Marvin Moeller. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNikolai Barsukov 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMarvin Moeller 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marvin Moeller 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Marvin Moelleravg 72.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$84.32	56% 100-79 (179)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nikolai Barsukovavg 28.6¢	$824.16	$922.6	+$98.44	54% 1606-1351 (2957)
FL Flaznorp	Marvin Moelleravg 68.4¢	$241.36	$236.52	-$4.84	50% 1384-1403 (2787)
PA Pan9X<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 68.1¢	$63.88	$62.88	-$1	48% 407-443 (850)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Nikolai Barsukovavg 22¢	$22	$31.98	+$9.98	25% 203-621 (824)
VeryLucky888<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 75¢	$78.75	$26.46	-$6.18	48% 215-230 (445)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Nikolai Barsukovavg 24¢	$6.31	$8.41	+$2.1	24% 201-643 (844)
SE sentrio<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 72¢	$7.2	$6.7	-$0.5	29% 157-376 (533)

0xheavy888

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$1,196.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$84.32

Record

56%

100-79 (179)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$824.16

Value

$922.6

PnL

+$98.44

Record

54%

1606-1351 (2957)

Flaznorp

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$241.36

Value

$236.52

PnL

-$4.84

Record

50%

1384-1403 (2787)

Pan9X<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$63.88

Value

$62.88

PnL

-$1

Record

48%

407-443 (850)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$22

Value

$31.98

PnL

+$9.98

Record

25%

203-621 (824)

VeryLucky888<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$78.75

Value

$26.46

PnL

-$6.18

Record

48%

215-230 (445)

LimousinCTR<$100

Nikolai Barsukov

Invested

$6.31

Value

$8.41

PnL

+$2.1

Record

24%

201-643 (844)

sentrio<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0.5

Record

29%

157-376 (533)

Research grade

NeutralMarvin Moeller at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marvin Moeller

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Marvin Moeller. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNikolai Barsukov 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMarvin Moeller 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marvin Moeller 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marvin Moeller wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.