Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
SK Rapid vs. Wolfsberger AC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 48¢ · $437 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$436.83
$5.32
48.5¢ → 47.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 47.4¢ | $153.64 | $158.67 | +$5.02 | 50% 26083-25738 (51821) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 50.2¢ | $125.68 | $122.55 | -$3.13 | 50% 1580-1596 (3176) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $59.59 | $60.92 | +$1.32 | 51% 26313-24941 (51254) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.2¢ | $51.9 | $50.61 | -$1.29 | 51% 1634-1544 (3178) |
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $38.23 | $41.63 | +$3.4 | 48% 4036-4321 (8357) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.2¢ | $2.46 | $2.45 | -$0.01 | 50% 1593-1622 (3215) |
Invested
$153.64
Value
$158.67
PnL
+$5.02
Record
50%
26083-25738 (51821)
Invested
$125.68
Value
$122.55
PnL
-$3.13
Record
50%
1580-1596 (3176)
Invested
$59.59
Value
$60.92
PnL
+$1.32
Record
51%
26313-24941 (51254)
Invested
$51.9
Value
$50.61
PnL
-$1.29
Record
51%
1634-1544 (3178)
Invested
$38.23
Value
$41.63
PnL
+$3.4
Record
48%
4036-4321 (8357)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
1593-1622 (3215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.