Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 1?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 57¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
2 arb excluded
$20.8K
$210.51
51.7¢ → 56.8¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $20.4K | $19.6K | -$793.32 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.6¢ | $9.5K | $9.8K | +$288.8 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $10.9K | $9.8K | $-1.1K | |
19 196874353278 | Yesavg 45¢ | $373.37 | $433.67 | +$309.98 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $1.6K | $322.65 | -$252.13 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $83.04 | $182.19 | +$99.15 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.2¢ | $246.15 | $140.46 | -$351.28 | |
GO gobblewobbleCTR | Noavg 47.2¢ | $374.09 | $307.99 | -$66.1 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 82.5¢ | $135.83 | $108.76 | -$27.07 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.8¢ | $25.41 | $18.77 | -$6.31 | 53% 3726-3240 (6966) |
Invested
$20,410.51
Value
$19.6K
PnL
-$793.32
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Both legs:
Invested
$373.37
Value
$433.67
PnL
+$309.98
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$1,634.43
Value
$322.65
PnL
-$252.13
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
Both legs:
Invested
$374.09
Value
$307.99
PnL
-$66.1
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Invested
$135.83
Value
$108.76
PnL
-$27.07
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$25.41
Value
$18.77
PnL
-$6.31
Record
53%
3726-3240 (6966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.