Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 10?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$14.2K
$462.7
96.4¢ → 99.9¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $10.5K | $10.9K | +$425.74 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$22.11 | 40% 29-44 (73) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 96.5¢ | $578.88 | $593.99 | +$15.11 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $129.06 | $129.34 | +$0.28 | 100% 30-0 (30) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $49 | $17.15 | +$0.36 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $1.8 | $0.9 | -$0.9 | — 3-2 (5) |
Invested
$10,478.54
Value
$10.9K
PnL
+$425.74
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$2,566.74
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$22.11
Record
40%
29-44 (73)
Invested
$578.88
Value
$593.99
PnL
+$15.11
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$129.06
Value
$129.34
PnL
+$0.28
Record
100%
30-0 (30)
balthazar<$100Invested
$49
Value
$17.15
PnL
+$0.36
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.9
Record
—
3-2 (5)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.