Bursaspor vs. Fenerbahce

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahce (20%) · Fenerbahce at 80¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 14

Bursaspor20¢Fenerbahce80¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fenerbahce

Consensus Traders

Fenerbahce 20%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.5K

Combined PnL

-$15.8

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

1 of 5 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bursaspor20%

Fenerbahce80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fenerbahce1 trader

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares20,052

Combined PnL-$29.01

Bursaspor4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares8,777

Combined PnL+$13.21

Fenerbahce — 20%Bursaspor — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBursaspor 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpFenerbahce 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBursaspor 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBursaspor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bursaspor 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Fenerbahceavg 80.1¢	$16.1K	$16.0K	-$29.01	76% 64-20 (84)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bursasporavg 22¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$57.83	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
└ Bursaspor leg	Bursasporavg 22¢	$880.8	$799.38	-$81.41
└ Fenerbahce leg	Fenerbahceavg 75.9¢	$348.05	$371.64	+$23.59
CI cigarettesCTR	Bursasporavg 19.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$5.58	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Bursasporavg 21.9¢	$558.81	$577.43	+$18.63	57% 4276-3204 (7480)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Bursasporavg 50¢	$304.27	$282.42	-$115.85	—
└ Fenerbahce leg	Fenerbahceavg 50¢	$100.26	$162.42	+$58.15
└ Bursaspor leg	Bursasporavg 50¢	$300	$120	-$174
SE sentrioARB<$100	Bursasporavg 22.1¢	$281.4	$264.14	-$22.7	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
└ Bursaspor leg	Bursasporavg 22.1¢	$225.03	$203.55	-$26.54
└ Fenerbahce leg	Fenerbahceavg 75.4¢	$56.37	$60.58	+$3.84
tradecraftCTR<$100	Bursasporavg 21.1¢	$92.05	$87.3	+$0.18	51% 6508-6273 (12781)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Bursasporavg 24.1¢	$74.87	$62.14	-$11.17	58% 47408-34193 (81601)

stepanka1234

Fenerbahce

Invested

$16,070.37

Value

$16.0K

PnL

-$29.01

Record

76%

64-20 (84)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$1,228.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$57.83

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

Both legs:

Bursaspor$880.822¢-$81.41

Fenerbahce$348.0575.9¢+$23.59

cigarettesCTR

Bursaspor

Invested

$1,022.87

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$5.58

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

Bagwell306CTR

Bursaspor

Invested

$558.81

Value

$577.43

PnL

+$18.63

Record

57%

4276-3204 (7480)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$304.27

Value

$282.42

PnL

-$115.85

Record

—

Both legs:

Fenerbahce$100.2650¢+$58.15

Bursaspor$30050¢-$174

sentrioARB<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$281.4

Value

$264.14

PnL

-$22.7

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

Both legs:

Bursaspor$225.0322.1¢-$26.54

Fenerbahce$56.3775.4¢+$3.84

tradecraftCTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$92.05

Value

$87.3

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

6508-6273 (12781)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$74.87

Value

$62.14

PnL

-$11.17

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

1 of 5 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBursaspor 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpFenerbahce 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBursaspor 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBursaspor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bursaspor 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fenerbahce wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.