Niners Chemnitz vs. Napoli Basket
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Napoli Basket (50%) · Napoli Basket at 60¢ · $625 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Napoli Basket
6
Napoli Basket 50%
$625.07
-$2.56
58.2¢ → 59.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNapoli Basket at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Napoli Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Napoli Basketavg 58.3¢ | $365.23 | $363.42 | -$1.81 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
SE sentrio | Napoli Basketavg 58.2¢ | $104.23 | $103.92 | -$0.31 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Niners Chemnitzavg 42.5¢ | $97.41 | $96.32 | -$1.09 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
BI biying88888CTR<$100 | Niners Chemnitzavg 41.6¢ | $48.69 | $49.14 | +$0.45 | 36% 113-199 (312) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur<$100 | Napoli Basketavg 56¢ | $9.82 | $10.17 | +$0.35 | 2% 1-53 (54) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Niners Chemnitzavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.1 | -$0.15 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
Invested
$365.23
Value
$363.42
PnL
-$1.81
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$104.23
Value
$103.92
PnL
-$0.31
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$97.41
Value
$96.32
PnL
-$1.09
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$48.69
Value
$49.14
PnL
+$0.45
Record
36%
113-199 (312)
Invested
$9.82
Value
$10.17
PnL
+$0.35
Record
2%
1-53 (54)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.15
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.