Toyama Grouses vs. Osaka Evessa
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Toyama Grouses (67%) · Toyama Grouses at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19
⚠️
Avoid
Toyama Grouses
6
Toyama Grouses 67%
$2.1K
-$12.94
83.2¢ → 86¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidToyama Grouses at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Toyama Grouses. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Toyama Grousesavg 83.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$24.82 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
SE sentrio | Toyama Grousesavg 84¢ | $290.59 | $293.94 | +$3.35 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Toyama Grousesavg 82¢ | $264.88 | $274.57 | +$9.69 | 59% 437-298 (735) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Toyama Grousesavg 82¢ | $82 | $85 | +$3 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
VE VenusianCTR | Osaka Evessaavg 20¢ | $108.18 | $70.32 | -$37.86 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Osaka Evessaavg 20¢ | $45.54 | $29.6 | -$15.94 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
Invested
$1,273.7
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$24.82
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$290.59
Value
$293.94
PnL
+$3.35
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$264.88
Value
$274.57
PnL
+$9.69
Record
59%
437-298 (735)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$82
Value
$85
PnL
+$3
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$108.18
Value
$70.32
PnL
-$37.86
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
Invested
$45.54
Value
$29.6
PnL
-$15.94
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.