Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mobis Phoebus, while the market favors Goyang (57%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Goyang (-1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Mobis Phoebus (50%) · Mobis Phoebus at 43¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Mobis Phoebus
4
Mobis Phoebus 50%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
$124.49
46.6¢ → 42.5¢
-9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidMobis Phoebus at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Goyang 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Mobis Phoebus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xNuttawutCTR | Mobis Phoebusavg 46.6¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$58.93 | 55% 23-19 (42) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Goyangavg 52¢ | $926.46 | $979.43 | +$52.97 | 59% 420-286 (706) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Goyangavg 53¢ | $178.2 | $191.77 | +$13.57 | 50% 1378-1396 (2774) |
| └ Goyang leg | Goyangavg 53¢ | $121.37 | $146.56 | +$25.19 | |
| └ Mobis Phoebus leg | Mobis Phoebusavg 45.3¢ | $56.83 | $45.21 | -$11.62 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Goyangavg 53.5¢ | $307 | $63.92 | +$13 | 48% 208-228 (436) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Mobis Phoebusavg 47¢ | $6.27 | $5.87 | -$0.4 | 29% 155-375 (530) |
Invested
$2,919.03
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$58.93
Record
55%
23-19 (42)
Invested
$926.46
Value
$979.43
PnL
+$52.97
Record
59%
420-286 (706)
Invested
$178.2
Value
$191.77
PnL
+$13.57
Record
50%
1378-1396 (2774)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$307
Value
$63.92
PnL
+$13
Record
48%
208-228 (436)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$5.87
PnL
-$0.4
Record
29%
155-375 (530)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.