Mobis Phoebus vs. Goyang
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Goyang (67%) · Goyang at 60¢ · $651 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Goyang
6
Goyang 67%
1 arb excluded
$650.71
$10.75
55.9¢ → 59.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidGoyang at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Goyangavg 55.1¢ | $244.53 | $254.66 | +$10.13 | 50% 1378-1396 (2774) |
| └ Goyang leg | Goyangavg 55.1¢ | $140.36 | $147.83 | +$7.47 | |
| └ Mobis Phoebus leg | Mobis Phoebusavg 41¢ | $104.17 | $106.83 | +$2.66 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Goyangavg 55.1¢ | $196.97 | $205.63 | +$8.67 | 54% 1599-1345 (2944) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Mobis Phoebusavg 42.5¢ | $125.17 | $78.02 | +$1.8 | 48% 208-228 (436) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Goyangavg 57.8¢ | $71.29 | $71.49 | +$0.2 | 47% 147-166 (313) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Goyangavg 56¢ | $28 | $28.5 | +$0.5 | 14% 93-563 (656) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Goyangavg 56.8¢ | $8.23 | $8.41 | +$0.18 | 34% 162-314 (476) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Mobis Phoebusavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $4 | -$0.6 | 24% 205-634 (839) |
Invested
$244.53
Value
$254.66
PnL
+$10.13
Record
50%
1378-1396 (2774)
Both legs:
Invested
$196.97
Value
$205.63
PnL
+$8.67
Record
54%
1599-1345 (2944)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$125.17
Value
$78.02
PnL
+$1.8
Record
48%
208-228 (436)
Invested
$71.29
Value
$71.49
PnL
+$0.2
Record
47%
147-166 (313)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$28
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
14%
93-563 (656)
Invested
$8.23
Value
$8.41
PnL
+$0.18
Record
34%
162-314 (476)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
24%
205-634 (839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.