South East Melbourne Phoenix vs. Illawarra Hawks

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Illawarra Hawks (67%) · Illawarra Hawks at 90¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 18

South East Melbourne Phoenix10¢Illawarra Hawks90¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Illawarra Hawks

Consensus Traders

Illawarra Hawks 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 90¢

+71% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidIllawarra Hawks at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illawarra Hawks

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South East Melbourne Phoenix10%

Illawarra Hawks90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illawarra Hawks4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,307

Combined PnL+$1.1K

South East Melbourne Phoenix2 traders

Total Value$340.82

Total Shares496

Combined PnL+$8.32

Illawarra Hawks — 67%South East Melbourne Phoenix — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 36.4¢	$8.1K	$5.8K	$-2.2K	53% 1782-1584 (3366)
└ Illawarra Hawks leg	Illawarra Hawksavg 71¢	$3.6K	$4.5K	+$901.67
└ South East Melbourne Phoenix leg	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 36.4¢	$4.5K	$1.4K	$-3.1K
FL Flaznorp	Illawarra Hawksavg 53.8¢	$2.6K	$3.4K	+$813.52	51% 1816-1775 (3591)
tradecraft	Illawarra Hawksavg 51¢	$333.2	$584.48	+$251.28	19% 145-608 (753)
VeryLucky888CTR	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 72.8¢	$426.2	$330.32	+$7.32	52% 440-413 (853)
VE Venusian<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 25¢	$23.83	$24.78	+$0.95	30% 371-860 (1231)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 19¢	$9.5	$10.5	+$1	53% 5633-5071 (10704)
MA MadridTime<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 25¢	$3.6	$3.74	+$0.14	31% 372-838 (1210)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$8,060.46

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

53%

1782-1584 (3366)

Both legs:

Illawarra Hawks$3,550.8871¢+$901.67

South East Melbourne Phoenix$4,509.5836.4¢$-3.1K

Flaznorp

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$2,604.04

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$813.52

Record

51%

1816-1775 (3591)

tradecraft

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$333.2

Value

$584.48

PnL

+$251.28

Record

19%

145-608 (753)

VeryLucky888CTR

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$426.2

Value

$330.32

PnL

+$7.32

Record

52%

440-413 (853)

Venusian<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$23.83

Value

$24.78

PnL

+$0.95

Record

30%

371-860 (1231)

cigarettesCTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

5633-5071 (10704)

MadridTime<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.14

Record

31%

372-838 (1210)

Research grade

AvoidIllawarra Hawks at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Illawarra Hawks

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illawarra Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.