Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-11-09?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 47¢ · $617 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$617.24
$7.18
44.2¢ → 46.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 43.2¢ | $180.98 | $191.13 | +$10.15 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 45.6¢ | $128.58 | $128.29 | -$0.29 | 50% 24147-24262 (48409) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $130.37 | $124.93 | -$0.03 | 50% 33896-34147 (68043) |
MA MadridTime | Yesavg 56.9¢ | $118.98 | $114.23 | -$4.75 | 45% 2764-3372 (6136) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.3¢ | $30.49 | $28.28 | +$0.09 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $58.74 | $27.9 | +$2.04 | 51% 6933-6586 (13519) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $2.5 | $2.47 | -$0.03 | 46% 2861-3344 (6205) |
Invested
$180.98
Value
$191.13
PnL
+$10.15
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$128.58
Value
$128.29
PnL
-$0.29
Record
50%
24147-24262 (48409)
Invested
$130.37
Value
$124.93
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
33896-34147 (68043)
Invested
$118.98
Value
$114.23
PnL
-$4.75
Record
45%
2764-3372 (6136)
Invested
$30.49
Value
$28.28
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$58.74
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$2.04
Record
51%
6933-6586 (13519)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.47
PnL
-$0.03
Record
46%
2861-3344 (6205)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.