Will GV CD San José win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.1K
$10.65
52.8¢ → 67.5¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52.8¢ | $513.2 | $552.52 | +$39.32 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $300.69 | $292 | +$10.41 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 53.8¢ | $145.63 | $114.27 | -$31.36 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.2¢ | $87.3 | $79.13 | -$8.17 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $10.55 | $10 | -$0.55 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $7.21 | $8.68 | +$1.32 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $6.48 | $6.15 | -$0.33 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
Invested
$513.2
Value
$552.52
PnL
+$39.32
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$300.69
Value
$292
PnL
+$10.41
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$145.63
Value
$114.27
PnL
-$31.36
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$87.3
Value
$79.13
PnL
-$8.17
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$10.55
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.55
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$7.21
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$1.32
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$6.48
Value
$6.15
PnL
-$0.33
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.