Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $13K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$13.1K
$190.79
95.5¢ → 96.9¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
74h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 96¢ | $5.6K | $5.2K | +$48.5 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 93.7¢ | $4.3K | $4.5K | +$146.91 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
XC xcaiox | Noavg 98¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$16.11 | 77% 200-61 (261) |
 yen4u | Noavg 96.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$2.25 | 86% 809-136 (945) |
 4751346 | Noavg 95¢ | $475 | $485.5 | +$9.25 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $29.13 | $29.13 | +$0 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
Invested
$5,612.05
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$48.5
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Donny.TInvested
$4,335.83
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$146.91
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
Invested
$1,531.36
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$16.11
Record
77%
200-61 (261)
yen4uInvested
$1,377.25
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$2.25
Record
86%
809-136 (945)
4751346Invested
$475
Value
$485.5
PnL
+$9.25
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$29.13
Value
$29.13
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.