Consensus PnL $23K · win rate 74% (258–91, n=349) · hand-picked wallet · holds 68 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.7K
Record
258W / 91L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 349 settled
Batting Avg
66.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#607
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
17,596
Markets
824
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
68 in listed consensus markets · 65 of 68 on the consensus side (96%)- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No $48K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No $14K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (66% of 33)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $13K · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $9.5K · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
- Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?No $8.9K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $8.5K · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $7.6K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No $6.0K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
Specialties
507 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 86¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 94% of 195 · avg entry 88¢
ROI −1%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 100% of 36 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 91% of 43 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 78% of 180 at an average 79¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 4% of 26)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 20% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 68% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 90%(won 95% of 457)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.