Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 53¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$4.4K
-$943.31
73.9¢ → 52.5¢
-29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 77.1¢ | $2.6K | $1.8K | -$813.28 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 71¢ | $1.1K | $774.61 | -$6.17 | 58% 22563-16669 (39232) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 71¢ | $1.1K | $721.25 | -$4 | 57% 22242-16601 (38843) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 71¢ | $715 | $710 | -$5 | 50% 65490-65806 (131296) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 70.3¢ | $404.47 | $287.82 | -$116.66 | 50% 32573-32704 (65277) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $34.54 | $36.42 | +$1.88 | 53% 70213-61793 (132006) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $10 | $2.85 | -$0.05 | 59% 52401-37126 (89527) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $5.93 | $1.75 | -$0.03 | 49% 2208-2325 (4533) |
Invested
$2,644.3
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$813.28
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$1,071.29
Value
$774.61
PnL
-$6.17
Record
58%
22563-16669 (39232)
Invested
$1,114.18
Value
$721.25
PnL
-$4
Record
57%
22242-16601 (38843)
Invested
$715
Value
$710
PnL
-$5
Record
50%
65490-65806 (131296)
Invested
$404.47
Value
$287.82
PnL
-$116.66
Record
50%
32573-32704 (65277)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$34.54
Value
$36.42
PnL
+$1.88
Record
53%
70213-61793 (132006)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$2.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
59%
52401-37126 (89527)
Invested
$5.93
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
2208-2325 (4533)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.