Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bradley Braves, while the market favors Davidson Wildcats (100%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Davidson Wildcats (-11.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bradley Braves (22%) · Bradley Braves at 0.5¢ · $889 held · ended Nov 11

Davidson Wildcats>99¢Bradley Braves<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bradley Braves

Consensus Traders

Bradley Braves 22%

Total Value

$888.62

Combined PnL

$107.45

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBradley Braves at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bradley Braves

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Davidson Wildcats 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Davidson Wildcats100%

Bradley Braves1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bradley Braves2 traders

Total Value$400.37

Total Shares733

Combined PnL-$31.44

Davidson Wildcats7 traders

Total Value$488.25

Total Shares789

Combined PnL+$138.89

Bradley Braves — 22%Davidson Wildcats — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-58 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Bradley Braves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDavidson Wildcats 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDavidson Wildcats 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Davidson Wildcats 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Bradley Bravesavg 56.8¢	$378.63	$353.21	-$25.42	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189	Davidson Wildcatsavg 44.3¢	$153.61	$204.73	+$51.12	48% 949-1019 (1968)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 40¢	$33.16	$82.49	+$49.33	25% 114-349 (463)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 39¢	$62.4	$75.2	+$12.8	64% 175-97 (272)
PA Pan9X<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 50.3¢	$72.94	$57.61	+$7.85	49% 444-470 (914)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 46¢	$43.11	$57.31	+$14.2	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 60¢	$53.18	$47.16	-$6.02	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 42¢	$5.18	$7.77	+$2.59	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 43¢	$2.15	$3.15	+$1	26% 181-519 (700)

takeormakeCTR

Bradley Braves

Invested

$378.63

Value

$353.21

PnL

-$25.42

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$153.61

Value

$204.73

PnL

+$51.12

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$33.16

Value

$82.49

PnL

+$49.33

Record

25%

114-349 (463)

suitcase6628<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$62.4

Value

$75.2

PnL

+$12.8

Record

64%

175-97 (272)

Pan9X<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$72.94

Value

$57.61

PnL

+$7.85

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$43.11

Value

$57.31

PnL

+$14.2

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$53.18

Value

$47.16

PnL

-$6.02

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Flaznorp<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$5.18

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$2.59

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

ameisgoat11<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$2.15

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$1

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Research grade

AvoidBradley Braves at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bradley Braves

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Davidson Wildcats 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-58 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Bradley Braves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDavidson Wildcats 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDavidson Wildcats 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Davidson Wildcats 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bradley Braves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.