Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Florida Gators, while the market favors Florida State Seminoles (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Florida Gators (-8.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Gators (57%) · Florida Gators at 44¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10

Florida Gators44¢Florida State Seminoles56¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida Gators

Consensus Traders

Florida Gators 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$452.2

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 43.5¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlorida Gators at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Gators

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Florida State Seminoles 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Florida Gators44%

Florida State Seminoles56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida Gators4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,802

Combined PnL+$451.69

Florida State Seminoles3 traders

Total Value$51.66

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$0.5

Florida Gators — 57%Florida State Seminoles — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Florida Gators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFlorida State Seminoles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Florida Gators 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Florida Gatorsavg 51¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$445.31	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 46.3¢	$159.89	$176.7	+$16.82	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 46.3¢	$98.12	$125.08	+$26.96
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 49.1¢	$61.77	$51.62	-$10.14
dips.CTR<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 54¢	$31.86	$34.81	+$2.95	42% 217-300 (517)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 42.9¢	$43.84	$33.88	+$3.38	49% 440-464 (904)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 47¢	$28.6	$28.62	+$0.02	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
BA bands1<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 47¢	$20.21	$20.64	+$0.43	50% 331-328 (659)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.4	+$0.05	26% 177-517 (694)
US User7429CTR<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 54¢	$0.54	$0.59	+$0.05	18% 73-323 (396)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Florida Gators

Invested

$2,985.57

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$445.31

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$159.89

Value

$176.7

PnL

+$16.82

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Florida Gators$98.1246.3¢+$26.96

Florida State Seminoles$61.7749.1¢-$10.14

dips.CTR<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$31.86

Value

$34.81

PnL

+$2.95

Record

42%

217-300 (517)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$43.84

Value

$33.88

PnL

+$3.38

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

Flaznorp<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$28.6

Value

$28.62

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

bands1<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$20.21

Value

$20.64

PnL

+$0.43

Record

50%

331-328 (659)

ameisgoat11<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

User7429CTR<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.05

Record

18%

73-323 (396)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida Gators at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Gators

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Florida State Seminoles 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Florida Gators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFlorida State Seminoles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Florida Gators 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Gators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.