Consensus PnL -$396K · win rate 49% (418–429, n=847) · PM monthly #366 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-396.3K
Record
418W / 429L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 847 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1233
Source
PM monthly #366
Record (90 d)
201/396 · 51%
Trades
1,482
Markets
876
Volume
$12.4M
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Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 16 on the consensus side (44%)- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $31K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (64% of 96)
- Spread: 49ers (-9.5)Raiders $29K · now 49¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Iowa vs. NorthwesternIowa $18K · now 56¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (42% of 12)
- Spread: New Mexico (-10.5)Nevada $15K · now 31¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (New Mexico)
- Bengals vs. FalconsBengals $12K · now 61¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (73% of 12)
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Kings $9.9K · now 55¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Spurs)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-07?No $2.2K · now 16¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Packers vs. PatriotsPatriots $1.1K · now 62¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
Specialties
844 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 51¢- College Basketball
+3 pts
side won 51% of 77 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −2%
- Elections
+14 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +19%
- Golf
+2 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 74¢
ROI −10%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 46% of 156 at an average 48¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 20% of 60)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 46% of 329)
- 50–70¢: 44%(won 51% of 374)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 79% of 81)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.