Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 163.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 99¢ · $437 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$437.46
$73.73
67.8¢ → 98.6¢
+45% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | Underavg 77¢ | $130.4 | $165.11 | +$34.72 | 45% 86-104 (190) |
 RN1 | Underavg 91¢ | $105.51 | $93.15 | -$12.35 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $47 | $91 | +$44 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $37.69 | $75.83 | +$38.14 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 35.9¢ | $38.13 | $7.46 | -$30.67 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $4.55 | +$2.2 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $0.35 | -$2.3 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$130.4
Value
$165.11
PnL
+$34.72
Record
45%
86-104 (190)
RN1Invested
$105.51
Value
$93.15
PnL
-$12.35
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$47
Value
$91
PnL
+$44
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$37.69
Value
$75.83
PnL
+$38.14
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$38.13
Value
$7.46
PnL
-$30.67
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$2.2
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$2.3
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.