Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. UC Davis Aggies

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UC Davis Aggies (63%) · UC Davis Aggies at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Incarnate Word Cardinals6¢UC Davis Aggies94¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UC Davis Aggies

Consensus Traders

UC Davis Aggies 63%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$19.79

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 94.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUC Davis Aggies at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UC Davis Aggies

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Incarnate Word Cardinals6%

UC Davis Aggies95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UC Davis Aggies5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,133

Combined PnL+$23.07

Incarnate Word Cardinals3 traders

Total Value$34.72

Total Shares463

Combined PnL-$3.28

UC Davis Aggies — 63%Incarnate Word Cardinals — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	UC Davis Aggiesavg 92¢	$435.88	$447.72	+$11.84	50% 32-32 (64)
HO HomeRunHazard	UC Davis Aggiesavg 86¢	$389.58	$391.84	+$2.26	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
38 38791873984189	UC Davis Aggiesavg 89.6¢	$165	$173.83	+$8.83	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
RN1CTR<$100	Incarnate Word Cardinalsavg 8.3¢	$23.29	$20.93	-$2.36	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
PA Pan9X<$100	UC Davis Aggiesavg 86¢	$15.56	$15.66	+$0.1	49% 673-714 (1387)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Incarnate Word Cardinalsavg 8¢	$10.7	$10.03	-$0.67	53% 1818-1628 (3446)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	UC Davis Aggiesavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.33	+$0.03	32% 295-621 (916)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Incarnate Word Cardinalsavg 8¢	$4	$3.75	-$0.25	42% 114-157 (271)

pagliacci4

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$435.88

Value

$447.72

PnL

+$11.84

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

HomeRunHazard

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$389.58

Value

$391.84

PnL

+$2.26

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

38791873984189

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$165

Value

$173.83

PnL

+$8.83

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

RN1CTR<$100

Incarnate Word Cardinals

Invested

$23.29

Value

$20.93

PnL

-$2.36

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

Pan9X<$100

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$15.56

Value

$15.66

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

673-714 (1387)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Incarnate Word Cardinals

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$0.67

Record

53%

1818-1628 (3446)

ameisgoat11<$100

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

32%

295-621 (916)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Incarnate Word Cardinals

Invested

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

42%

114-157 (271)

Research grade

AvoidUC Davis Aggies at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UC Davis Aggies

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UC Davis Aggies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.