Iona Gaels vs. Fordham Rams

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Fordham Rams (57%) · Fordham Rams at 98¢ · $261 held · ended Nov 11

Iona Gaels3¢Fordham Rams97¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fordham Rams

Consensus Traders

Fordham Rams 57%

Total Value

$261.32

Combined PnL

-$22.4

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 98¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidFordham Rams at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fordham Rams

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Iona Gaels3%

Fordham Rams98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fordham Rams4 traders

Total Value$235.9

Total Shares248

Combined PnL+$14.9

Iona Gaels3 traders

Total Value$25.42

Total Shares466

Combined PnL-$37.3

Fordham Rams — 57%Iona Gaels — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Fordham Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iona Gaels) and the top 1000 (7 on Fordham Rams) disagree here.

ctrIona Gaels 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedIona Gaels 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fordham Rams 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Fordham Ramsavg 81.7¢	$174.29	$188.22	+$13.93	48% 949-1019 (1968)
PA Pan9X<$100	Fordham Ramsavg 83.9¢	$23.26	$24.69	+$1.43	49% 444-470 (914)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Iona Gaelsavg 13¢	$48.52	$18.66	-$29.86	48% 190-206 (396)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Fordham Ramsavg 80¢	$14.58	$14.3	-$0.27	56% 488-383 (871)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Fordham Ramsavg 86¢	$8.88	$8.69	-$0.19	62% 2352-1445 (3797)
RN1CTR<$100	Iona Gaelsavg 13.2¢	$13.7	$4.6	-$9.09	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Iona Gaelsavg 5¢	$0.5	$2.15	+$1.65	54% 1657-1434 (3091)

38791873984189

Fordham Rams

Invested

$174.29

Value

$188.22

PnL

+$13.93

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Pan9X<$100

Fordham Rams

Invested

$23.26

Value

$24.69

PnL

+$1.43

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Iona Gaels

Invested

$48.52

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$29.86

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Fordham Rams

Invested

$14.58

Value

$14.3

PnL

-$0.27

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Fordham Rams

Invested

$8.88

Value

$8.69

PnL

-$0.19

Record

62%

2352-1445 (3797)

RN1CTR<$100

Iona Gaels

Invested

$13.7

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$9.09

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Iona Gaels

Invested

$0.5

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$1.65

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Research grade

AvoidFordham Rams at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Fordham Rams

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Fordham Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iona Gaels) and the top 1000 (7 on Fordham Rams) disagree here.

ctrIona Gaels 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedIona Gaels 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fordham Rams 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fordham Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.