Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Troy Trojans
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Loyola Marymount Lions (40%) · Loyola Marymount Lions at 83¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Loyola Marymount Lions
10
Loyola Marymount Lions 40%
$3.7K
-$191.81
70.7¢ → 83.5¢
+18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLoyola Marymount Lions at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 72.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$271.34 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
 RN1 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 67¢ | $816.35 | $927.8 | +$111.45 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Troy Trojansavg 48¢ | $868.87 | $470.61 | -$398.26 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 71.5¢ | $376.86 | $341.3 | -$31.02 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
PA Pan9X | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 71.5¢ | $90.79 | $111.66 | +$27.99 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Troy Trojansavg 26.3¢ | $171.72 | $104.96 | -$66.76 | 28% 278-703 (981) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Troy Trojansavg 24.5¢ | $134.5 | $88.21 | -$46.29 | 28% 274-715 (989) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Troy Trojansavg 23.7¢ | $72.18 | $49.03 | -$23.15 | 28% 278-729 (1007) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Troy Trojansavg 49¢ | $67.62 | $35.88 | -$31.74 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Troy Trojansavg 5.2¢ | $16.31 | $10.95 | -$5.36 | 54% 1656-1433 (3089) |
Invested
$1,240.51
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$271.34
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
RN1Invested
$816.35
Value
$927.8
PnL
+$111.45
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$868.87
Value
$470.61
PnL
-$398.26
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$376.86
Value
$341.3
PnL
-$31.02
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$90.79
Value
$111.66
PnL
+$27.99
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$171.72
Value
$104.96
PnL
-$66.76
Record
28%
278-703 (981)
Invested
$134.5
Value
$88.21
PnL
-$46.29
Record
28%
274-715 (989)
Invested
$72.18
Value
$49.03
PnL
-$23.15
Record
28%
278-729 (1007)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$67.62
Value
$35.88
PnL
-$31.74
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
Invested
$16.31
Value
$10.95
PnL
-$5.36
Record
54%
1656-1433 (3089)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Loyola Marymount Lions — $1.5K
RN1
Loyola Marymount Lions — $927.8
HomeRunHazard
CTRTroy Trojans — $470.61
38791873984189
Loyola Marymount Lions — $341.3
Pan9X
Loyola Marymount Lions — $111.66
MadridTime
CTRTroy Trojans — $104.96
LightParadox
CTRTroy Trojans — $88.21
Venusian
CTRTroy Trojans — $49.03
nigiri99
CTRTroy Trojans — $35.88
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRTroy Trojans — $10.95