Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Troy Trojans: O/U 143.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 60¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$3.3K
$589.56
44.1¢ → 59.5¢
+35% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 43.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.8K | +$505.38 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 49¢ | $222.9 | $250.19 | +$27.29 | 8% 37-422 (459) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 44.5¢ | $185.45 | $225.84 | +$57.43 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 49.3¢ | $30.15 | $29.05 | -$1.1 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $10.41 | $10.71 | +$0.31 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $4.8 | $4.66 | -$0.15 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.75 | +$0.4 | 26% 181-519 (700) |
Invested
$2,277.95
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$505.38
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$222.9
Value
$250.19
PnL
+$27.29
Record
8%
37-422 (459)
Invested
$185.45
Value
$225.84
PnL
+$57.43
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$30.15
Value
$29.05
PnL
-$1.1
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$10.71
PnL
+$0.31
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.66
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.4
Record
26%
181-519 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.