Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan State Spartans (50%) · Michigan State Spartans at 99¢ · $890 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Michigan State Spartans
8
Michigan State Spartans 50%
$889.88
$150.22
58.9¢ → 98.6¢
+68% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidMichigan State Spartans at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+21 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State Spartans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Michigan State Spartansavg 52¢ | $238.25 | $440.76 | +$202.51 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
 RN1 | Michigan State Spartansavg 78.4¢ | $197.67 | $223.4 | +$25.73 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
38 38791873984189 | Michigan State Spartansavg 52¢ | $192.99 | $174.81 | +$0.68 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Michigan State Spartansavg 53¢ | $18.34 | $27.2 | +$8.86 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Duke Blue Devilsavg 49.5¢ | $54.61 | $12.14 | -$42.47 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Duke Blue Devilsavg 50¢ | $46.5 | $10.23 | -$36.27 | 51% 300-292 (592) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Duke Blue Devilsavg 36.8¢ | $7.65 | $0.79 | -$6.86 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Duke Blue Devilsavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $0.55 | -$1.95 | 26% 181-519 (700) |
Invested
$238.25
Value
$440.76
PnL
+$202.51
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
RN1Invested
$197.67
Value
$223.4
PnL
+$25.73
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$192.99
Value
$174.81
PnL
+$0.68
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$18.34
Value
$27.2
PnL
+$8.86
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$54.61
Value
$12.14
PnL
-$42.47
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$46.5
Value
$10.23
PnL
-$36.27
Record
51%
300-292 (592)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$6.86
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$1.95
Record
26%
181-519 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Michigan State Spartans — $440.76
RN1
Michigan State Spartans — $223.4
38791873984189
Michigan State Spartans — $174.81
Pan9X
Michigan State Spartans — $27.2
HomeRunHazard
CTRDuke Blue Devils — $12.14
VeryLucky888
CTRDuke Blue Devils — $10.23
Flaznorp
CTRDuke Blue Devils — $0.79
ameisgoat11
CTRDuke Blue Devils — $0.55