North Carolina Central Eagles vs. VMI Keydets

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold VMI Keydets (71%) · VMI Keydets at 86¢ · $419 held · ended Nov 11

North Carolina Central Eagles14¢VMI Keydets86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

VMI Keydets

Consensus Traders

VMI Keydets 71%

Total Value

$418.83

Combined PnL

$44.6

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 86¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidVMI Keydets at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

VMI Keydets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Carolina Central Eagles14%

VMI Keydets86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

VMI Keydets5 traders

Total Value$417.36

Total Shares486

Combined PnL+$44.43

North Carolina Central Eagles2 traders

Total Value$1.46

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$0.17

VMI Keydets — 71%North Carolina Central Eagles — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on VMI Keydets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVMI Keydets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000VMI Keydets 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	VMI Keydetsavg 75¢	$293.25	$332.35	+$39.1	55% 205-165 (370)
TH thirdt1me<$100	VMI Keydetsavg 85¢	$42.5	$42.5	+$0	43% 123-163 (286)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	VMI Keydetsavg 76¢	$21.99	$24.78	+$2.79	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
PA Pan9X<$100	VMI Keydetsavg 82.1¢	$11.5	$13.44	+$1.94	49% 684-724 (1408)
FL Flaznorp<$100	VMI Keydetsavg 73¢	$3.69	$4.29	+$0.61	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
RN1CTR<$100	North Carolina Central Eaglesavg 7¢	$1.06	$1.21	+$0.15	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	North Carolina Central Eaglesavg 8¢	$0.24	$0.26	+$0.02	53% 1841-1653 (3494)

0xheavy888

VMI Keydets

Invested

$293.25

Value

$332.35

PnL

+$39.1

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

thirdt1me<$100

VMI Keydets

Invested

$42.5

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

123-163 (286)

HomeRunHazard<$100

VMI Keydets

Invested

$21.99

Value

$24.78

PnL

+$2.79

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

Pan9X<$100

VMI Keydets

Invested

$11.5

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$1.94

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Flaznorp<$100

VMI Keydets

Invested

$3.69

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.61

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

RN1CTR<$100

North Carolina Central Eagles

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.21

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

North Carolina Central Eagles

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

Research grade

AvoidVMI Keydets at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

VMI Keydets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on VMI Keydets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVMI Keydets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000VMI Keydets 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that VMI Keydets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.