North Dakota State Bison vs. Bakersfield Roadrunners

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold North Dakota State Bison (50%) · North Dakota State Bison at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

North Dakota State Bison62¢Bakersfield Roadrunners38¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Dakota State Bison

Consensus Traders

North Dakota State Bison 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$2.59

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 61.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Dakota State Bison at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Dakota State Bison

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Dakota State Bison62%

Bakersfield Roadrunners39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bakersfield Roadrunners3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,754

Combined PnL-$14.06

North Dakota State Bison3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,246

Combined PnL+$11.47

Bakersfield Roadrunners — 50%North Dakota State Bison — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on North Dakota State Bison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Dakota State Bison 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNorth Dakota State Bison 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Dakota State Bison 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000North Dakota State Bison 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA BanfieldChrisCTR	Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.85	52% 23-21 (44)
HO HomeRunHazard	North Dakota State Bisonavg 56¢	$1.5K	$853.55	+$7.56	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
SN SnakeBall	North Dakota State Bisonavg 56¢	$402.35	$405.95	+$3.59	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
RN1CTR	Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 39¢	$100.62	$99.33	-$1.29	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 40.9¢	$26.93	$26.01	-$0.92	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
0xheavy888<$100	North Dakota State Bisonavg 55¢	$11.55	$11.87	+$0.32	56% 8773-6961 (15734)

BanfieldChrisCTR

Bakersfield Roadrunners

Invested

$1,069.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.85

Record

52%

23-21 (44)

HomeRunHazard

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$1,508.99

Value

$853.55

PnL

+$7.56

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

SnakeBall

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$402.35

Value

$405.95

PnL

+$3.59

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

RN1CTR

Bakersfield Roadrunners

Invested

$100.62

Value

$99.33

PnL

-$1.29

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bakersfield Roadrunners

Invested

$26.93

Value

$26.01

PnL

-$0.92

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

0xheavy888<$100

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$11.55

Value

$11.87

PnL

+$0.32

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Dakota State Bison at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Dakota State Bison

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on North Dakota State Bison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Dakota State Bison 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNorth Dakota State Bison 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Dakota State Bison 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000North Dakota State Bison 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Dakota State Bison wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.