Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (77%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Portland Pilots vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 158.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 24¢ · $939 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$938.84
$163.52
46.4¢ → 23.5¢
-49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifooCTR | Overavg 46.1¢ | $432.24 | $557.99 | +$125.76 | 63% 1291-774 (2065) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $138.41 | $177.52 | +$39.12 | 54% 1570-1320 (2890) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $117.3 | $98.04 | -$19.27 | 57% 3041-2285 (5326) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 51.1¢ | $76.47 | $91.24 | +$14.78 | 50% 1318-1340 (2658) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Overavg 34.1¢ | $8.5 | $11.09 | +$2.59 | 56% 450-359 (809) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.95 | +$0.55 | 20% 116-466 (582) |
Invested
$432.24
Value
$557.99
PnL
+$125.76
Record
63%
1291-774 (2065)
Invested
$138.41
Value
$177.52
PnL
+$39.12
Record
54%
1570-1320 (2890)
Invested
$117.3
Value
$98.04
PnL
-$19.27
Record
57%
3041-2285 (5326)
Invested
$76.47
Value
$91.24
PnL
+$14.78
Record
50%
1318-1340 (2658)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$11.09
PnL
+$2.59
Record
56%
450-359 (809)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.55
Record
20%
116-466 (582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.