Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Iowa Hawkeyes, while the market favors Virginia Tech Hokies (71%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-4.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa Hawkeyes (86%) · Iowa Hawkeyes at 30¢ · $744 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Iowa Hawkeyes
7
Iowa Hawkeyes 86%
$743.66
-$131.64
46.8¢ → 29.5¢
-37% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidIowa Hawkeyes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Virginia Tech Hokies 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Iowa Hawkeyes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Iowa Hawkeyesavg 47¢ | $656.39 | $537.05 | -$119.34 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Iowa Hawkeyesavg 45.7¢ | $103.09 | $98.03 | -$5.06 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
 RN1<$100 | Virginia Tech Hokiesavg 59.3¢ | $61.99 | $59.11 | -$2.89 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Iowa Hawkeyesavg 47¢ | $49.32 | $43.52 | -$3.45 | 51% 300-292 (592) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Iowa Hawkeyesavg 47¢ | $3.29 | $2.66 | -$0.63 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Iowa Hawkeyesavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $1.9 | -$0.45 | 26% 181-519 (700) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Iowa Hawkeyesavg 38¢ | $1.23 | $1.4 | +$0.18 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
Invested
$656.39
Value
$537.05
PnL
-$119.34
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$103.09
Value
$98.03
PnL
-$5.06
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
RN1<$100Invested
$61.99
Value
$59.11
PnL
-$2.89
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$49.32
Value
$43.52
PnL
-$3.45
Record
51%
300-292 (592)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$0.63
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.45
Record
26%
181-519 (700)
Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0.18
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
CTRIowa Hawkeyes — $537.05
Flaznorp
CTRIowa Hawkeyes — $98.03
RN1
Virginia Tech Hokies — $59.11
VeryLucky888
CTRIowa Hawkeyes — $43.52
Pan9X
CTRIowa Hawkeyes — $2.66
ameisgoat11
CTRIowa Hawkeyes — $1.9
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
CTRIowa Hawkeyes — $1.4