Washington State Cougars vs. Duquesne Dukes

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Duquesne Dukes (67%) · Duquesne Dukes at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Washington State Cougars46¢Duquesne Dukes54¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Duquesne Dukes

Consensus Traders

Duquesne Dukes 67%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$19.38

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 54¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidDuquesne Dukes at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duquesne Dukes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Washington State Cougars46%

Duquesne Dukes54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duquesne Dukes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,215

Combined PnL+$15.94

Washington State Cougars3 traders

Total Value$413.07

Total Shares993

Combined PnL+$3.44

Duquesne Dukes — 67%Washington State Cougars — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Duquesne Dukes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDuquesne Dukes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Duquesne Dukes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Duquesne Dukesavg 60¢	$679.2	$690.52	+$11.32	52% 128-119 (247)
HI hi774c	Duquesne Dukesavg 59¢	$386.24	$392.79	+$6.55	8% 37-422 (459)
VI vibing123CTR	Washington State Cougarsavg 41¢	$205	$202.5	-$2.5	63% 1076-642 (1718)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Washington State Cougarsavg 39¢	$195.56	$200.49	+$4.93	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
FL Flaznorp	Duquesne Dukesavg 60.2¢	$145.57	$145.01	-$0.56	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
38 38791873984189<$100	Duquesne Dukesavg 60.7¢	$97.99	$96.82	-$1.16	48% 939-1010 (1949)
PA Pan9X<$100	Duquesne Dukesavg 60¢	$12	$12	+$0	49% 440-464 (904)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Washington State Cougarsavg 36¢	$9.07	$10.08	+$1.01	26% 234-663 (897)
SE sentrio<$100	Duquesne Dukesavg 64¢	$3.2	$3	-$0.2	32% 184-398 (582)

nigiri99

Duquesne Dukes

Invested

$679.2

Value

$690.52

PnL

+$11.32

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

hi774c

Duquesne Dukes

Invested

$386.24

Value

$392.79

PnL

+$6.55

Record

37-422 (459)

vibing123CTR

Washington State Cougars

Invested

$205

Value

$202.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

63%

1076-642 (1718)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Washington State Cougars

Invested

$195.56

Value

$200.49

PnL

+$4.93

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Flaznorp

Duquesne Dukes

Invested

$145.57

Value

$145.01

PnL

-$0.56

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

38791873984189<$100

Duquesne Dukes

Invested

$97.99

Value

$96.82

PnL

-$1.16

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Pan9X<$100

Duquesne Dukes

Invested

$12

Value

$12

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Washington State Cougars

Invested

$9.07

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$1.01

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

sentrio<$100

Duquesne Dukes

Invested

$3.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

Research grade

AvoidDuquesne Dukes at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Duquesne Dukes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Duquesne Dukes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDuquesne Dukes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Duquesne Dukes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duquesne Dukes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.