Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wyoming Cowboys, while the market favors North Carolina Tar Heels (81%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wyoming Cowboys vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wyoming Cowboys (50%) · Wyoming Cowboys at 19¢ · $313 held · ended Nov 11

Wyoming Cowboys19¢North Carolina Tar Heels81¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wyoming Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Wyoming Cowboys 50%

Total Value

$312.99

Combined PnL

$62.51

Smart Money Entry

10.2¢ → 19¢

+87% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWyoming Cowboys at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming Cowboys

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors North Carolina Tar Heels 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wyoming Cowboys19%

North Carolina Tar Heels81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wyoming Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$210.75

Total Shares1,447

Combined PnL+$63.5

North Carolina Tar Heels4 traders

Total Value$102.24

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$0.99

Wyoming Cowboys — 50%North Carolina Tar Heels — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wyoming Cowboysavg 10.3¢	$69.94	$129.24	+$59.29	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 10¢	$73.69	$77.37	+$3.68	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
38 38791873984189<$100	North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 89.7¢	$70.88	$69.92	-$0.96	48% 939-1010 (1949)
0xheavy888<$100	North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 90¢	$16.2	$16.2	+$0	56% 119-94 (213)
PA Pan9X<$100	North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 90¢	$11.7	$11.7	+$0	49% 440-464 (904)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.43	-$0.03	26% 177-517 (694)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 16¢	$2.4	$2.63	+$0.23	56% 488-383 (871)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 8¢	$1.21	$1.51	+$0.3	26% 234-663 (897)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$69.94

Value

$129.24

PnL

+$59.29

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$73.69

Value

$77.37

PnL

+$3.68

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

38791873984189<$100

North Carolina Tar Heels

Invested

$70.88

Value

$69.92

PnL

-$0.96

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

0xheavy888<$100

North Carolina Tar Heels

Invested

$16.2

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

Pan9X<$100

North Carolina Tar Heels

Invested

$11.7

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

ameisgoat11<$100

North Carolina Tar Heels

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.3

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

Research grade

AvoidWyoming Cowboys at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming Cowboys

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors North Carolina Tar Heels 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wyoming Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.