SD Amorebieta vs. UD Logroñés: O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 69¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.6K
$130.39
78.5¢ → 69¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 80.4¢ | $681.92 | $676.88 | -$5.04 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Underavg 22.7¢ | $386.94 | $530.81 | +$143.87 | 47% 11082-12418 (23500) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000 | Overavg 73.4¢ | $247.28 | $268.92 | +$21.64 | 42% 2368-3215 (5583) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 80.3¢ | $54.24 | $53.94 | -$0.3 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 26.3¢ | $63.52 | $33.75 | -$29.77 | 57% 12279-9333 (21612) |
RN1Invested
$681.92
Value
$676.88
PnL
-$5.04
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$386.94
Value
$530.81
PnL
+$143.87
Record
47%
11082-12418 (23500)
Invested
$247.28
Value
$268.92
PnL
+$21.64
Record
42%
2368-3215 (5583)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$54.24
Value
$53.94
PnL
-$0.3
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$63.52
Value
$33.75
PnL
-$29.77
Record
57%
12279-9333 (21612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.