Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Deportivo Alavés, while the market favors CD Anaitasuna (78%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-3.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Deportivo Alavés (67%) · Deportivo Alavés at 22¢ · $743 held · ended Nov 10

Deportivo Alavés22¢CD Anaitasuna78¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Deportivo Alavés

Consensus Traders

Deportivo Alavés 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$742.72

Combined PnL

-$16.12

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 22¢

-53% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDeportivo Alavés at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Deportivo Alavés

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors CD Anaitasuna 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Deportivo Alavés22%

CD Anaitasuna78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Deportivo Alavés4 traders

Total Value$159.25

Total Shares379

Combined PnL-$18.03

CD Anaitasuna2 traders

Total Value$68.55

Total Shares87

Combined PnL+$1.9

Deportivo Alavés — 67%CD Anaitasuna — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Deportivo Alavés. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDeportivo Alavés 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Deportivo Alavés 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	CD Anaitasunaavg 54¢	$494.43	$514.9	+$20.47	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
└ CD Anaitasuna leg	CD Anaitasunaavg 54¢	$255.68	$369.41	+$113.73
└ Deportivo Alavés leg	Deportivo Alavésavg 36.1¢	$238.75	$145.49	-$93.26
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 46¢	$69	$67.5	-$1.5	25% 213-654 (867)
SE sentrio<$100	CD Anaitasunaavg 53.3¢	$58.63	$58.74	+$0.11	31% 170-383 (553)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 47¢	$57.81	$43.67	-$14.15	5% 6-120 (126)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 46¢	$26.4	$26.43	+$0.03	25% 215-633 (848)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 50¢	$24.07	$21.66	-$2.41	25% 214-643 (857)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	CD Anaitasunaavg 52.7¢	$8.01	$9.81	+$1.8	37% 191-330 (521)

FlaznorpARB<$100

CD Anaitasuna

Invested

$494.43

Value

$514.9

PnL

+$20.47

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Both legs:

CD Anaitasuna$255.6854¢+$113.73

Deportivo Alavés$238.7536.1¢-$93.26

VenusianCTR<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$69

Value

$67.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

sentrio<$100

CD Anaitasuna

Invested

$58.63

Value

$58.74

PnL

+$0.11

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$57.81

Value

$43.67

PnL

-$14.15

Record

6-120 (126)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$26.4

Value

$26.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$24.07

Value

$21.66

PnL

-$2.41

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

omnibus-076daa<$100

CD Anaitasuna

Invested

$8.01

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$1.8

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

Research grade

AvoidDeportivo Alavés at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Deportivo Alavés

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors CD Anaitasuna 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Deportivo Alavés. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDeportivo Alavés 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Deportivo Alavés 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Deportivo Alavés wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.