Will CP Mijas-Las Lagunas vs. Real Jaén CF end in a draw?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 74¢ · $205 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$204.86
-$0.45
73.9¢ → 73.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 74¢ | $134.09 | $132.29 | -$1.8 | 38% 94-154 (248) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $56.95 | $58.05 | +$1.1 | 52% 242-227 (469) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $6.62 | $6.88 | +$0.26 | 47% 35-39 (74) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.68 | +$0.13 | 0% 0-36 (36) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $10 | $2.65 | +$0.05 | 48% 61-65 (126) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.33 | -$0.18 | — |
Invested
$134.09
Value
$132.29
PnL
-$1.8
Record
38%
94-154 (248)
Invested
$56.95
Value
$58.05
PnL
+$1.1
Record
52%
242-227 (469)
Invested
$6.62
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$0.26
Record
47%
35-39 (74)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0.13
Record
0%
0-36 (36)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
61-65 (126)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$0.18
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.