Will SD Eibar win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 72¢ · $422 held · ended Nov 3

Yes72¢No28¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$421.54

Combined PnL

-$25.17

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 72¢

-9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$417.38

Total Shares580

Combined PnL-$26.7

No2 traders

Total Value$4.15

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$1.53

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 78.5¢	$245.85	$225.36	-$6.4	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
BA Bayupati	Yesavg 80¢	$130.2	$117.18	-$13.02	49% 259-272 (531)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$74.22	$67.64	-$6.58	49% 14703-15372 (30075)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.6	-$0.35	51% 1368-1329 (2697)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.6	-$0.35	50% 1309-1291 (2600)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 16.3¢	$1.21	$2.08	+$0.87	57% 12688-9755 (22443)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$1.41	$2.07	+$0.67	58% 46658-33622 (80280)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$245.85

Value

$225.36

PnL

-$6.4

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

Bayupati

Yes

Invested

$130.2

Value

$117.18

PnL

-$13.02

Record

49%

259-272 (531)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.22

Value

$67.64

PnL

-$6.58

Record

49%

14703-15372 (30075)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

1368-1329 (2697)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

1309-1291 (2600)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$1.21

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.87

Record

57%

12688-9755 (22443)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.41

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.