Will CD Pamplona win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $419 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$418.73
-$3.05
87.4¢ → 83¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.1¢ | $234.31 | $232.38 | -$1.92 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $63.97 | $91.82 | +$25.32 | 49% 103-107 (210) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $92.34 | $72.48 | -$19.86 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $22.99 | $17.67 | -$5.32 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $5.64 | $4.38 | -$1.26 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
Invested
$234.31
Value
$232.38
PnL
-$1.92
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$63.97
Value
$91.82
PnL
+$25.32
Record
49%
103-107 (210)
Invested
$92.34
Value
$72.48
PnL
-$19.86
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$22.99
Value
$17.67
PnL
-$5.32
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$4.38
PnL
-$1.26
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.