Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CD Pamplona, while the market favors SD Eibar (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: SD Eibar (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold CD Pamplona (83%) · CD Pamplona at 45¢ · $344 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
CD Pamplona
6
CD Pamplona 83%
$343.88
-$27.75
68.3¢ → 45¢
-34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCD Pamplona at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors SD Eibar 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on CD Pamplona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | SD Eibaravg 31¢ | $87.42 | $155.1 | +$67.68 | 54% 1184-1023 (2207) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | CD Pamplonaavg 68.1¢ | $192.44 | $127.12 | -$65.32 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | CD Pamplonaavg 69¢ | $69 | $45 | -$24 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | CD Pamplonaavg 70¢ | $13.2 | $9.9 | -$3.3 | 52% 1140-1038 (2178) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | CD Pamplonaavg 63¢ | $8.51 | $6.08 | -$2.43 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | CD Pamplonaavg 70¢ | $1.06 | $0.68 | -$0.38 | 51% 7648-7364 (15012) |
Invested
$87.42
Value
$155.1
PnL
+$67.68
Record
54%
1184-1023 (2207)
Invested
$192.44
Value
$127.12
PnL
-$65.32
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$69
Value
$45
PnL
-$24
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$3.3
Record
52%
1140-1038 (2178)
Invested
$8.51
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$2.43
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.06
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$0.38
Record
51%
7648-7364 (15012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.