CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 1.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 67¢ · $294 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
$294.46
$5.8
74.6¢ → 66.5¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 74.6¢ | $218.09 | $225.98 | +$7.88 | 51% 23811-22567 (46378) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $25 | $37.5 | -$2 | 58% 44906-32675 (77581) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $15.13 | $15.63 | +$0.5 | 51% 1041-990 (2031) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $6.78 | $5.98 | -$1.03 | 51% 7458-7190 (14648) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $2.98 | $3.13 | +$0.15 | 50% 35855-35309 (71164) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $2.98 | $3.13 | +$0.15 | 54% 1142-961 (2103) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $2.98 | $3.13 | +$0.15 | 52% 1107-1025 (2132) |
Invested
$218.09
Value
$225.98
PnL
+$7.88
Record
51%
23811-22567 (46378)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$37.5
PnL
-$2
Record
58%
44906-32675 (77581)
Invested
$15.13
Value
$15.63
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
1041-990 (2031)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.78
Value
$5.98
PnL
-$1.03
Record
51%
7458-7190 (14648)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$3.13
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
35855-35309 (71164)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$3.13
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
1142-961 (2103)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$3.13
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
1107-1025 (2132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.