Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 47¢ · $374 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$373.69
$44.3
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
96h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 47.1¢ | $125.12 | $124.8 | +$1.18 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $92.06 | $97.58 | +$5.52 | 53% 1125-986 (2111) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $32.45 | $73.71 | +$34.77 | 49% 102-105 (207) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 50.1¢ | $36.66 | $38.75 | +$2.09 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $20.04 | $20.43 | +$0.39 | 50% 21519-21799 (43318) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $18.07 | $18.42 | +$0.35 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
Invested
$125.12
Value
$124.8
PnL
+$1.18
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$92.06
Value
$97.58
PnL
+$5.52
Record
53%
1125-986 (2111)
Invested
$32.45
Value
$73.71
PnL
+$34.77
Record
49%
102-105 (207)
Invested
$36.66
Value
$38.75
PnL
+$2.09
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
Invested
$20.04
Value
$20.43
PnL
+$0.39
Record
50%
21519-21799 (43318)
Invested
$18.07
Value
$18.42
PnL
+$0.35
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.