Club Portugalete vs. Real Unión Club: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 50¢ · $319 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$318.67
$116.14
31.8¢ → 50¢
+57% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
103h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Overavg 31.5¢ | $95.03 | $150.99 | +$55.96 | 49% 2223-2352 (4575) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 31.1¢ | $52.72 | $84.64 | +$31.92 | 47% 2157-2403 (4560) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Overavg 32.7¢ | $49.56 | $75.77 | +$27.85 | 47% 2189-2445 (4634) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $3.87 | $4.5 | +$0.63 | 46% 30580-35679 (66259) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $2.99 | $2.77 | -$0.22 | 53% 2999-2623 (5622) |
Invested
$95.03
Value
$150.99
PnL
+$55.96
Record
49%
2223-2352 (4575)
Invested
$52.72
Value
$84.64
PnL
+$31.92
Record
47%
2157-2403 (4560)
Invested
$49.56
Value
$75.77
PnL
+$27.85
Record
47%
2189-2445 (4634)
Invested
$3.87
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$0.63
Record
46%
30580-35679 (66259)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$2.99
Value
$2.77
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
2999-2623 (5622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.