Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Barakaldo CF win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 50¢ · $44 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$44.11
$3.22
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $22.1 | $24.4 | +$2.3 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $6.22 | $6.1 | -$0.12 | 54% 1193-1031 (2224) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $6.52 | $4.64 | +$0.27 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $3.3 | $3.95 | +$0.65 | 74% 2423-864 (3287) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $3.11 | $3.05 | -$0.06 | 52% 1162-1079 (2241) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.79 | $1.97 | +$0.18 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
Invested
$22.1
Value
$24.4
PnL
+$2.3
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$6.22
Value
$6.1
PnL
-$0.12
Record
54%
1193-1031 (2224)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.52
Value
$4.64
PnL
+$0.27
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$0.65
Record
74%
2423-864 (3287)
Invested
$3.11
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0.06
Record
52%
1162-1079 (2241)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.79
Value
$1.97
PnL
+$0.18
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.