CF Trival Valderas vs. CD Leganés: Both Teams to Score
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 65¢ · $429 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$429.07
-$0.33
63.9¢ → 64.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 63.9¢ | $284.69 | $282.45 | -$2.24 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.9¢ | $55.79 | $57.54 | +$1.75 | 24% 200-618 (818) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $31.8 | $32.34 | +$0.54 | 24% 204-633 (837) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.9¢ | $23.96 | $23.66 | -$0.29 | 24% 201-627 (828) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $16.47 | $16.56 | +$0.09 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $13.44 | $13.44 | +$0 | 24% 200-638 (838) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $3.25 | $3.07 | -$0.18 | 34% 161-313 (474) |
Invested
$284.69
Value
$282.45
PnL
-$2.24
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$55.79
Value
$57.54
PnL
+$1.75
Record
24%
200-618 (818)
Invested
$31.8
Value
$32.34
PnL
+$0.54
Record
24%
204-633 (837)
Invested
$23.96
Value
$23.66
PnL
-$0.29
Record
24%
201-627 (828)
Invested
$16.47
Value
$16.56
PnL
+$0.09
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
Invested
$13.44
Value
$13.44
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
200-638 (838)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.07
PnL
-$0.18
Record
34%
161-313 (474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.